Expected Finals to decide USOpen winners

When the first two seeds and favourite for the title face each other in a Slam final that seems almost unsurprising, but when that happens in both the men and women tournaments the surprise seems to suddenly increase..
Most of all the presence of the highest seeds in both finals shouldn't lead to the easy misjudgement that the tournament was boring or by any mean unsurpirsing (for more have a look at the first week report on falled seeds). Both the finals have the added drama of the great rivalries that are shaping the last seasons in a way that in both cases it seems that the stakes are beyond the title only.

(1) Serena Williams vs (2) Victoria Azarenka

Rematch of last year's final (first time since 2001 when the Williams' sisters faced each other for the second year in a row), rematch of the last tournament's final they've played few weeks ago in Cincinnati, clash between the best two players in the world, the current and former world number one and there's a lot more one could say be lying behind this final, because like it or not, those two are building one of the most interesting rivalries of the past few years in the women tennis.
Both girls know each other really well having played 16 times already, but despite Serena is leading comfortable the series with 13 wins, it feels like Vika is coming closer, every match between them has been a huge fight in the past two years, especially on hard courts. What's more this year the Belorussian leads the head to head, with both her wins on hardcourts, the latest in a great quality final ended 7-6 for Vika in Cincinnati. "you know, both matches she played really well." Said Serena regarding those two losses to Azarenka this year: "I let myself down at opportunities and I didn't take them. If I'm able to get another opportunity I have to take them, because she is always pumped and she does really well."

People seem to argue that the two finalists runs couldn't be more different: Serena didn't drop a single set and won 23 consecutive games starting from her 4th round to Stephens to her Semifinal against Li Na, while Vika dropped two sets against Cornet and Ivanovic, being very close to be defeated in this last one. The two semifinals couldn't be more unlike as well, since Serena needed very little fight to defeat Li Na, who sprayed error after error to surrender in the first set winning no game despite the "sole" 4 winners of Serena; on the other hand Azarenka needed a great fight to overcome a tenacious Pennetta. The Italian didn't play as well as in the other rounds, but never gave up and Azarenka often needed two or three extra shots to close rallies, hence the match was tough and tiring for both despite finishing in straight sets. " She was getting to the balls, you know, sometimes I didn't expect to come back, and she really surprised me in those kind of ways. She was really solid. I just felt that I was able to play better and execute better on the important moments and really take my chances." Said Vika after the match, but for sure she'll need to upper her service level if she wants to challenge Serena, something that she usually does, like in Cincinnati, when after a shaky tournament she came up with an outstanding performance to win that one.
I definitely feel like when she plays me she plays her best, by far." Said Serena about that raise of level whenever the two meet: "I have seen her play other players, and when I play her I'm playing a totally different player. Obviously she brings her best game, yeah."

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It is going to be a tough battle, that's for sure, none of the two would give up the fight, they are both great fighters and as said above, there's a lot of extra motivation (Serena as US Series winner has a 1 million dollars bonus too) and to use Azarenka's words: "It's tough to say. I think that, you know, the battles that we had, it was really just taking each other out of the most comfortable zone and just fight for every ball. Because, you know, we know each other pretty well. You know, I know her strengths; she knows my strengths. That's what it's all about, about those turning points, who wants it more, who's willing to go for it more. It's a bunch of combinations."
It's hard to pick a winner, I believe that Serena will in the end take this one, but she stands her best chances if she can avoid a 3rd setter.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs (2) Rafael Nadal

As for the women final, this is the nth chapter of a great rivalry and once more a win on Monday will mean a lot more than the already huge title of USOpen champion. The two know each other as well as they know themselves with 36 previous matches played and Nadal leading with 21 wins, but most of all with the last one gained in a tough and close battle on the summer hard courts.
Nadal is clearly the favourite, everything is by his side leading into this final, starting from his terrific season record (60 wins to only 3 losses), passing by the fact that he's yet to be defeated on Hard Courts, he leads the head to head and ending to the route to this final, in which he dropped a single set to Kohlschreiber. Djokovic's season would be looking outstanding in any other season, but it simply fades if compared to the one of Nadal and despite being still at the top of the ranking, the Serb is sure to see the Spaniard passing him within the next weeks.
Nonetheless this is the perfect stage to set a clear statement that he's not willing to give up the fight and after all they tie with one slam each, so there's still a chance to do better than the Spanish, at least in this category.

Nole knows he'll need to bring his best if he wants to threat Nadal: "it's always the biggest challenge that you can have in our sport now. I mean, he's the ultimate competitor out there. He's fighting for every ball and he's playing probably the best tennis that he ever played on hard courts. but, you know, I know how to play him. Hard court is the surface that, as I said, is my most successful surface. I have played him already here twice in the finals. I know what I need to do. Now it's of course easier to sit here and say, I know what I need to do, but I've got to do it on the court."
What's for sure, he will need a great effort from his team to recover from his semifinal, because differently from what I expected (you can see it in my semifinals preview), Wawrinka fought like a caged lion and came very close to upset the Serb and the winner could come through only after a battle of over 4 hours. On the other semifinal Nadal didn't need much time and despite his need to focus and win the important points, Gasquet couldn't do much more than staying close in the score, but in the end it ended in straight sets.

Nadal remains very cautious in his words as he knows that Djokovic is a great fighter even if he's coming more tired than he is: "Few weeks ago in Montreal have been, you know, good, very good level, no, of tennis? Is good if both of us, we are playing at very good level so the match becomes great because we play long rallies, we bring our game to the limit situations, and becomes a very difficult match for both of us. Hopefully I hope to be ready for that. I don't know. I gonna try. I need to keep playing very aggressive and play a very, very good match. Only like this I gonna have chances. That's what I gonna try."
Yet, I believe that Nadal has this match in his hands and probably he won't even need a 5th set to close it.

USOpen SF Preview

The countdown has started, it won't be long before the last slam of the year will close its gates, but that's the moment that every fan is waiting for, now it's the moment in which story will be written once again.
It's been a long and thrilling US Open so far, incredibly rich of quality and drama moments and now when it's all about the last four men and women, it's all about sizing the right chance to raise the trophy in the final.
One couldn't ask for a better semifinal line-up, in both draws there have been surprises and not all the favourites reached this far, but the ones who took their place not only deserved to get so far, but added great quality and a taste of fairytale to the story of this USOpen. Because if finding Serena Williams, Azarenka, Li Na (on the ladies' draw) and Djokovic and Nadal (in the men's) doesn't really surprise the fans, Flavia Pennetta, Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet are all surprising names to be found at this stage.

(1) Serena Willliams vs (5) Li Na

World number one and defending champion, Serena Williams takes on Chinise world number 5 in probably the first real test of Serena's conditions here in New York. The two know each other very well having played 9 times already, with Serena losing one of those matches, yet Li Na is well known for her powerful game and if consistency seems to be her major problem, no-one wants to face her with the rounds passing as she seems always to find her best game with the days passing in a tournament.

It's honestly hard to predict an upset here, mostly because Li Na had to struggle a lot in the earlier rounds, including a very tense performance against Ekaterina Makarova in the quarter-final, while Serena left nothing to her opponent, Carla Suarez Navarro, who was simply annihilated but the power and the accuracy of the shots of Serena.
Surely Li Na is not the same kind of player, with no detraction to the amazing result and the qualities of the Spaniard, but the Chinese can deal a lot better with powerful shots and Serena surely knows that, as much as she knows the fighting attitude that characterizes her, so everything is set for a great quality match here. My prediction is Serena to win 7-5 6-3.

(2) Viktoria Azarenka vs Flavia Pennetta

When world number 2 and twice-in-a-row Australian Open champion takes upon world number 83, one hardly believe that this might be a competitive match, but Flavia Pennetta isn't a normal world 83, former top 10 -first Italian ever to achieve such a result- she's achieved wins over most of the greatest players of this era, leading the head to head with some of them. Her story here is probably the biggest fairytale of the past few years: two years ago, at her 3rd QF in this slam, she went so close to achieve her first ever slam SF against a still unknown Angelique Kerber, but the pressure of the moment made her crumble and lose from a break up in the third set. Because of a wrist injury and the surgery needed she skipped last year's US Open, but her comeback this year looked to be a prelude to her retirement, as much as she considered that before Wimbledon, where she played well a couple of matches and exploited the retirement of the highest seed of her section: Vika Azarenka.
It's like the plot of a very intriguing thriller, because the "free pass" of Wimbledon is now her opponent in a match that none would have bet on when the draw came out.
Yet Flavia made a great run to reach this maiden semifinal, she took down the 4th seed and last year's Semifinalist Sara Errani, former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova (overturning a 5-0 in the head-to-head), summer-sensation Simona Halep and finally her close friend and one-step-away-from-top-10 Roberta Vinci, all that without dropping a set, showing match after match her best tennis and probably even a little more.  "I'm proud of me now.  I'm 31, and physically I feel good finally.  I'm in the first semifinal in Grand Slam." she said, "I really don't feel this pressure.  In Italy we already have one champion on Grand Slam; Sara make one final, two semifinals. So I really don't feel this pressure right now."
This is probably the potentially highest quality semifinal, because Azarenka knows Flavia, the two matches they have played before have gone one to each of them and Viktoria hasn't play at her absolute best so far, being challenged by Cornet and Ivanovic en route, yet the Belorussian is probably the greatest fighter out there and when the game goes tough, so she does and in her quarter final levelled her game to the situation to take down Daniela Hantuchova in straight sets.
She knows though that if Flavia can stay calm and not feel the moment, she might need her best tennis to get through: "You know, Flavia is such an amazing, first of all, person. I think she's just a great person. To see her go through the injuries and coming up with, you know, best results she has right now, it's really amazing. She's very good player, all around player. She can do anything. She has a great touch; great variety; she can create power; create spin. I'm really looking forward to that match. It's a big challenge."
I still give Viktoria the edge, because of her bigger experience at this point of slams, but I expect it to be a close match: 7-5 3-6 6-2 for the Belorussian.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs (9) Stanislas Wawrinka

  Another fairytale taste is recognizable in this semifinal, where there won't the defending champion to challenge the world number one, nor the most famous and probably talented Swiss player. This time it's another one-handed Swiss to go out there for a place in the Semifinal: Stan Wawrinka. His run here is somehow unexpected and deserved at the same time, because after many years of a very good quality career, Wawrinka found a new confidence and a renewed forehand that simply
catapulted him on a level never seen from him before. His run to this semifinal has been impressive, because differently from what happened many times in his career, he could play great tennis with continuity, keeping a cool head even when the things were about to start slipping from his hands -like in his match against an inspired Baghdatis, when he needed 4 match points to close-.
His quarterfinal match simply gives him a prime quality business card to hand to Djokovic at the very beginning: routining in straight sets Andy Murray is a sign that he is by no casualty there and won't surrender easily.

Djokovic is playing really well anyway, despite a few black-outs cost him a few sets in the tournament, he never seemed on the verge to suffering an upset, yet the Serb will need to be incredibly solid from the baseline and allow no easy attacks, because this "new" Wawrinka is no storm to wait until it's done, he has to be defeated, because he seems unlikely to lose this match by his own mistakes, Djokovic and his team will surely know that and I expect him to go on court with a clear plan on how to win this match, but will Wawrinka allow him to translate this plan into real action? Hard to tell, not immediately at least, but I think that in the distance Djokovic will find a way to catch another final in New York:  4-6 6-3 7-6 6-3

(2) Rafael Nadal vs (8) Richard Gasquet

Not as surprising as the other two unexpected semifinalists of this US Open, but it's hard to believe anyone would have bet on French Richard Gasquet to reach his second ever slam semifinal this year on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, yet he's won his ticket for this by edging the 4th seed, David Ferrer in a match that seemed to be a sure win after two sets of amazing quality from Gasquet and that suddenly took the shape of a disastrous turn-around, when Ferrer levelled the score to two sets all. Nevertheless, Gasquet could miraculously find the game that made him sail through the first two sets and close after many hours of tough battles for every point 6-3 in that 5th set.
On the other side of the net this time there will be another Spaniard waiting, Rafael Nadal. The world number 2, who came back from an injury that forced him to skip most of the last season and the beginning of this one, is still undefeated on Hard Court and he seems by no mean close to be, he's serving the best of his career and most of the time he doesn't even need to defend as good as in the past, because his offensive game seem hardly to flop. After schooling the "killer" of his rival Federer, Robredo, he looks eager to waste no time nor energy to reach the final, where whoever his rival will be, he is going to be the favourite for the title.
I don't see Gasquet challenging Nadal in this match, not even if Richard can come up with his best tennis, yet he has the great chance to go out with no pressure as probably no-one is putting any hope for his win and that might let him play even better than he did in his semi...all in all, a straight 3 sets win is the most likely result for Rafa some 7-6 6-2 6-3.

USO '13, when the seeds start falling

Not even half of the last slam of the year has been played and already many interesting names found themselves booking their flights off from New York because of a shocking upset before time.
There have been plenty of upsets in both the men and women singles draws, but quite a few were actually stunning and opened up different possible scenarios in the final economy of the Open. Contrary to what is usually thought to happen, a lot of seeds fell in the early days of the men draw with Gulbis, Melzer, Monaco, Dimitrov, Pair all losing in the first round. Same fate for a few more names you wouldn't guess beforehand, if not for their seeding, for their level of game: Fognini was stunned by the young American Ram winning 5 games only in the whole match; while Almagro lost another one-sided match to the Underdog Denis Istomin.
The biggest surprise came from the United Kingdom though, as coming from qualies, Daniel Evans, world n°179 before  this week, stunned with his bright and various game the 11th seed, Kei Nishikori in round 1, just before achieving another quality win over the Australian Promise Tomic in the second round. The British run was stopped only by the very solid performance of veteran Tommy Robredo, who needed four tight and long sets to finally prevail and reach the 4th round, where he will be facing Federer.
The biggest surprise of the tournament in the male draw happened when the 6th seed and former champion Juan-Martin Del Potro was ousted in the second round after a terrific marathon battle of almost 4 hours won by the former world number one -and nowadays unseeded- Lleyton Hewitt. Del Potro showed the sign of a not-so-stunning form earlier in the first round, when he needed a great effort to pass through the opening round against Garcia-Lopez. It still remains a great result for the Australian, that year after year never gives up and quite a few times can find the game and the attitude of the champion he's been many seasons ago.


The women tournament started with a breaking news as Maria Sharapova/Sugarpova decided to withdraw from the US Open due to a worsening of the conditions of her operated shoulder, that might actually force her away from tennis courts until the next slam in Australia in January.
Her absence opened in the draw a few more chances as the seeding changed in favor of Italian Sara Errani, upgraded to the 4th seed and hence with a bigger chance to defend her last-year SF.

Sarita came into this US Open with a lot of pressure because of this high seed and the ghost of this SF to defend, what's more, her results this summer were far from the ones of her best weeks, but the draw looked very kind to her as in the very first round she had no problems dispatching Australian Rogowska with a double 6-0. In the second round though, her run was promptly stopped by another Italian, whose love for the US Open is so big that she could find her best tennis after a year of struggles to recover from a severe wrist injury: Flavia Pennetta. The 3-time QFinalist in Flushing Meadows showed one of her best versions of her self outplaying Sara in every department of the game closing the match in a rapid 6-3 6-1 built on 33 great quality winners.
The first ever Italian top 10 went on fighting for a place in the 4th round against the former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, whom she had never beaten in their 5 previous meetings. The Russian clearly is not the same player as she was a few seasons ago, but the Italian pulled a great and gutsy performance to overcome the power of Svetlana.

In her 30s Pennetta found her first ever back to back slam 4th rounds, where she'll have another big hurdle to face: Simona Halep, the revelation of this summer and fresh winner of New Haven, who needed way less than one hour to win her 3rd round match against Kirilenko, seeded 14th, whose only credit for the match was to win that one game to avoid the double bagel. The match might be a great quality one as both players play a smart and bright tennis, made of both defence and offence, but despite the head to heads that see Flavia leading, Halep is the big favourite heading into this one.

Before Errani's loss in the second round, quite a big number of lower seeds had fallen in the first round and among them a few interesting name, given their pedigree and hot form: Sam Stosur, the 2-years-ago champion crumbled to local WC, the 18-year-old Victoria Duval; Kristen Flipkens, semifinalist in Wimbledon earlier this summer received a knock-down in the revenge match of Toronto's R1 by Venus Williams; Sorana Cirstea
, surprising finalist of Toronto crushed in round 2 by the hands of Japanese qualifier Kurimi Nara; Magdalena Rybarikova, winner of Washington and solid throughout the summer, was defeated by Austrian lucky loser Patricia Mayr-Achleitner and among the others Klara Zakopalova, whose lost to Hsieh could even pass unnoticed if it wasn't her 10th straight loss in the first round of the American slam.

Round 3 was then the grave of two more big names, whose career seem to be following some sort of a common pattern, despite the completely opposite playing style: Caroline Wozniacki and Petra Kvitova. If you believe that those two were battling for the world number one no longer than one and a half year ago, it might seem impossible, especially after witnessing the matches that ended their runs.
Petra won only 3 games in her match against American WC Allison Riske, a girl that she had defeated no longer than last week, even though in a long and tight match. This time the American came on court confident after the great win of German Mona Barthel and her game clicked so well that soon the Czech lost the plot and after the first set, she almost gave up the fight surrendering fast.
Quite a different story the one of Caroline Wozniacki, who seemed to have found a better game and more confidence during the summer, but that suddenly seemed to be fallen back to her insecurities and fears, which in the end cost her the match against Italian qualifier Camila Giorgi.

The Italian is well known in the tour as a very talented shot-maker, able to produce great power and at the same time very capable of moving well. Yet in the first set Caroline seemed to be able to contain the power of the Italian and at times re-use it for her own acellerations: up of a set, Wozniacki found herself close to break Giorgi's serve and capture all the momentum to flow with an easy two sets win, but after a 18 points-long game Giorgi hold serve and her confidence reached a new peak, while suddenly Wozniacki started to fear more and more the possibility to acutally lose and so her game became passive and soon her forehand broke down giving many free points to Giorgi, who winner after winner built a great performance which in the end deservedly gave her the 4-6 6-4 6-3 win worth of the round of 16.